Jun 30, 2023 • 2 min read

Pick up the pace! (and open this newsletter)

Racing to electric victory

Yellow graphic with red, white, teal, and purple lines curving from the left to the upper right.

Picture this. The year is 2050. Heat pumps abound, electric vehicles zip around every corner, and watched pots do boil (super fast), on induction cooktops in American kitchens across the country. Cleaner air inside, cleaner air outside. Roombas (BREW-mbas?) now make coffee.

How do we manifest this renewable reality? We need to electrify more stuff. Faster. How much more? We did the math.

Drum roll……we need 14 million MORE electrified machines than the current rate of adoption over the next three years to meet our climate goals. That’s a lot of heat pumps. But we can do it. (We’ll have to circle back on the Roomba thing.)

Our shiny, new Pace of Progress report tells us how. This report is the first of its kind and we’re pretty amped to share it with all of you.

I’m joining the race to #electrifyeverything! Download Rewiring America’s new Pace of Progress report to learn more!

The road to progress is S-shaped.

When we put our minds (ahem, and $$) to it, Americans are excellent technology bandwagon riders. It’s why we all carry phones in our pockets instead of beepers. Laptops instead of typewriters (unless you’re going for a very specific, recluse-writer vibe). Electric adoption at the level required is more challenging because it involves more pieces and it’s about flipping our entire energy system.

We may still banter about bandwagons and horsepower, but Americans knew when to upgrade the transportation game. Just look at our track record below. Technological adoption journeys are sparked by the arrival of something better. That’s what the suite of electrification machines and appliances offers: they’re just plain better.

Line graph showing US household adoption rate by percentage over time (between 1880-2020). It compares electric motors, electricity, refrigerators, color TVs, and cell phones. Each of the lines shows steep increases, with electric motors reaching a peak (~90%) around 1940, electricity reaching 100% at 1960, refrigerators reaching 100% between 1960-2010, color TVs reaching almost 100% in 2000, and cell phones reaching a peak of ~90% in 2020.

Our research team used what we know about S-shaped curve adoption and applied that methodology to the machines that make up 42 percent of American energy-related emissions. From the report: The S-curve adoption model starts off fairly slowly, representing modest increases in adoption in early “runway” years, then begins to accelerate quickly into widespread mass-market adoption (p. 5). The length of the runway varies by machine, but the message is the same: we need to pick up the pace to reach the adoption levels necessary to cross that 2050 emissions finish line.

Light blue graphic with black text that reads "We need to inspire 636,000 sales of 
electric vehicles over baseline in 2023, and 3.45 million sales of electric vehicles over baseline cumulatively in the next 
three years." The bottom of the graphic shows 5 electric cars next to each other.
Light purple graphic with black text that reads "We need to inspire 13,000 sales of 
heat pump water heaters over baseline in 2023, and 150,000 sales of heat pump water heaters over baseline cumulatively in the next three years." The bottom of the graphic shows 9 heat pump water heaters next to each other.

Most importantly for you, every electrification step you take helps us hit the Pace of Progress. And your heat pump or EV inspires other people to electrify. The pace is extraordinarily ambitious and absolutely possible. What will you electrify first?

Race to rebates.

In more racing news… We’ll keep you updated on rebate programs, but remember that tax credits are available now and it’s never too early to get rewiring ready!

Progress bar depicting timeline for electric rebates. A purple bar is almost at 'July 2023 DOE guidelines', and is progressing toward a finish line, which ends at 'Use those rebates'

The wire is buzzing about the Pace of Progress

⚡ To reach net-zero emissions, American homes need an electric makeover, Grist

⚡ Chart: Here’s how the US could get heat pumps in every home by 2050, Canary Media

⚡ America needs 14 million new electric machines by 2026, Fast Company